NEPSE’s Q4 Performance: A Look Back and What to Expect This Year

As we near the end of the fiscal year 2080/81, it is essential to examine the historical performance of NEPSE during the critical fourth quarter (Q4). This quarter, which spans from mid-April to mid-July, has consistently been a key period for market movement, driven by various economic and financial developments. One of the most notable trends in recent fiscal years has been the positive performance of NEPSE from Q3 to Q4.

In three of the last four fiscal years under review, the market has experienced an upward trajectory during this period, demonstrating a pattern of recovery, growth, and investor optimism. However, there was a notable exception in FY 2077/78, where Q4 showed a decline. 

Fiscal Year 2076/77 

• Q3 Closing (April 13, 2021): 2,714.79 

• Q4 Closing (July 15, 2021): 2,883.38

 • Change: +168.59 points (+6.21%) 

In FY 2076/77, NEPSE saw a healthy increase in Q4, reflecting a period of recovery from the pandemic's impact. Investor sentiment improved, and the market gained momentum, with the index rising by over 6% during Q4. 

Fiscal Year 2077/78 

• Q3 Closing (April 13, 2022): 2,415.24 

• Q4 Closing (July 14, 2022): 2,001.53

 • Change: -413.71 points (-17.13%) 

While FY 2077/78 saw a decline in Q4, the broader trend still demonstrated that Q4 is a period where significant market movements often occur, as investors react to various economic factors, including tightening monetary policies and uncertain global economic conditions. 

Fiscal Year 2078/79 

• Q3 Closing (April 13, 2023): 1,934.48 

• Q4 Closing (July 13, 2023): 2,084.93 

• Change: +150.45 points (+7.78%) 

In FY 2078/79, Q4 brought a rebound, with NEPSE increasing by 7.78%. This growth reflected renewed investor confidence and a recovery in market conditions, highlighting that Q4 can often serve as a period of recovery and growth. 

Fiscal Year 2079/80 

• Q3 Closing (April 10, 2024): 2,025.70 

• Q4 Closing (July 15, 2024): 2,240.41 

• Change: +214.71 points (+10.60%) 

The upward trend continued in FY 2079/80, with NEPSE rising by over 10% during Q4. This growth can be attributed to improved liquidity, positive investor sentiment, and optimism surrounding the national budget and economic outlook. 

Fiscal Year 2080/81 (Ongoing) 

• Q3 Closing (April 13, 2025): 2,662.08 

• Q4 Closing: Pending (Q4 ends on July 16, 2025) 

With Q3 closing at a relatively high level, we can expect that Q4 may continue the trend of positive growth. The upward momentum from Q3 suggests a promising outlook, driven by a mix of favorable market conditions and investor confidence. 

Conclusion: What to Expect for This Quarter

Looking at the historical trend, the consistent rise from Q3 to Q4 in three of the last four fiscal years suggests that we may see another positive performance in Q4 of fiscal year 2080/81. While there was a notable decrease in Q4 during FY 2077/78, investor confidence remains strong, and favorable macroeconomic factors are in play. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that NEPSE will continue its upward trajectory into Q4, barring any unforeseen global or local disruptions. This pattern of growth in Q4 highlights the quarter's significance in determining the overall market performance for the fiscal year, and investors should remain attentive to the developments in the coming months.